"[I]f everyone buys music on iTunes (etc), will the equivalent of a Sgt Pepper or a Tommy be possible? The album- (or double-album-) length work that shakes up how people think about the connections between songs, as well as songs as individual items?"
My immediate answer is no; the album as we (baby-boomers) knew it--an experience different from just listening to a bunch of songs in one sitting-- is dying and will probably be dead in a few years. But the album as a collection will probably survive in one form or another.
For most of the 20th century, the individual song was the primary format through which music was consumed, first through sheet music, then through singles (78 rpm, then 45 rpm). The album form that we know was introduced in the late 40's by Columbia Records as a collection of songs by a singer or band. Right through to the early 60's, however, the single remained the most important way to get music to the mass audience, and to get songs played on the radio. Most early rock albums were recorded hastily as a way to capitalize on a hit, and often consisted of a couple familiar songs and a lot of filler.
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As anyone who has talked to me for more than five minutes about the state of music today will know, I blame much of the music industry's problems on its attempt to kill off the single. Back in the 90's, with the advent of the CD, sales of singles had fallen off and labels started releasing "radio-only" promo singles to get songs played, but refused to release them commercially, forcing consumers to buy albums. Now the massive popularity of the mp3 has made the idea (if not the physical artifact) of the single hot again, and is threatening to make the album unnecessary and even unpalatable--why pay for "filler," especially when you can essentially make your own single (choose which songs you like and want to hear over and over again and not rely on a record label to choose for you).
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I have to say, it feels kinda fun to be able to subvert the artist despite his/her/their best effort to make me have a full album experience (I love What's Going On, but honestly, I usually skip "Save the Children," because when Gaye howls, "Save the babies," I laugh, which is certainly not the intended reaction--I have nothing against babies, but the cry comes off as a little silly). But I suspect that, when the music industry tried to subvert the singles business, they got more than they bargained for, and now, ironically, it's the album (at least as an art form) which is dying, and in a few years it will come full circle--albums will just be collections of song which were already hits on mp3. And that is kind of sad.
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